jueves, 25 de marzo de 2010

Analysis March 2010

A month of recovery after sharp falls the previous month. Costas & Miquel outstanding value of the month preceding one has been appreciated 28.14%. During this month highlighted Royal Bank of Scotland, nearly 40% rise, after releasing a less bad than expected and 16% that Volkswagen starts the road to recovery but is subdued by the provisions and the risks of defaultof its financial division.

Stresses in rates so far this year Latibex Brazil, with almost 7% and that makes it worse is that unites all of the continued Spanish companies, the IGBM, with 7%, affected by the risks ofinsolvency of the Spanish state that time is focusing momentarily dispelling any tension in Greece where he is negotiating a rescue plan.

Turning to commodities has driven recovery rates +17% Nickel highlighting the year and on the opposite side -22% Natural Gas year, while silver despite the strong advance of this month, up 13% as predicted in February is left in the year a 5% year.

The euro is weak reflecting the economic fragility of the European Economic tail states where Spain and Greece with high unemployment, poor salaries and high degree of political corruption are giving headaches to the most developed countries like Germany and France which reluctant to come to their rescue. That is why the euro losing ground with almost all currencies less with the UK, a member country shown immersed in a serious financial crisis with its banks bottoming out in credit default and loss in their income statements. The South African rand in the year takes a 7% advantage over the currency.

The VIX indicates flat bags below 20%. We are expecting some relevant data that leads us in some direction but to date the 11,000 points barrier seems insurmountable.

The Euribor remains at 1.21% minimum. The risks of rising inflation and hence interest rates have cooled by the weakness shown by the economy in the eurozone in the first months of the year, however the U.S. economy shows more signs of recovery and increases the risk of rates after the summer seem more patents in part because they reacted more quickly than the Central Bank.

The interests of the 10-year bonds are at more than 6% in Greece and 1.37% in Japan. The interbank interest are almost 5% in Budapest (bubor) and Switzerland (LIBOR) of 0.05%. The official interest rates in Russia are 8% and Japan at 0.10% while the market in South Africa by 7% and in Switzerland and Singapore 0.01%.

The economic sentiment for this month has been bullish but has side will change to as the weeks go on.

The current economic sentiment remains negative with slight improvements in general, especially in USA and Japan to +4%. Economic expectations for March are positive although suffering a significant deterioration of almost 11% in UK.

It also provides for a price drop in March, especially in UK 16% worsening sentiment. So interest rates both short and long will remain unchanged in March.

The side pockets will remain within this laterality which will be better as the Dow Jones and Nikkei.

The euro will continue to lose positions and only win in the change from the pound.

The oil will be slightly above $ 80 a barrel West Texas.

The sectors of the economy will recover, who else will be the electronic component.

For the February data on the Spanish stock market trading volume fell below the 80,000 million euros by the uncertainty created by countries like Greece, which shows the economic weakness in the euro area compared to other competitors like China and U.S. . So the FTSE closed the month of January with a depreciation of over 13%. By sector the least wrong did was telecommunications with Avanzit scoring more than 2% in a month.

The forecast of GDP in 2009 for the major economies remain weak, Japan nearly 6%. Domestic demand shows this same tendency in Spain to 6% with industrial production for 2009 of almost -16%, -22% away from Japan. The trend is reversing in January +19% in Japan and Spain will be moderating the fall.

The CPI in Spain in 2009 fell by -0.4%, down -1% in Japan. In 2010 it expects a rise in CPI in the UK during January by 3.5% did.

Unemployment continues to rise in major economies. Spain has the honor to lead this ranking with an unemployment rate of almost 19%. Only Japan experienced an improvement and is below 5%.

The high deficit will stop aid. Spain, U.S. and the UK are above 11%. Regarding the public debt issued in Japan is 218% of GDP.

The balance of payments current account over GDP in Spain experienced a significant improvement of 9% to 5% but we are still very dependent on outside especially on energy.Germany 4% and Japan with almost 2% are the most exported.

Interest rates on short three-month interbank market remain at low levels in Japan to 0.11% and 0.66% EMU. The long-term interests for the public debt to 10 years in EMU to 4.11% and 1.34% in Japan.

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